Baja Volatilidad del Bitcoin señalan “Hojas de Especulación”, dice el Analista de Bloomberg

Los analistas de Bloomberg se han unido a las filas de los expertos que consideran que los bajos niveles de volatilidad de Bitcoin (BTC) indican que la moneda está tocando fondo, según un análisis publicado el 24 de octubre.

Los datos analizados por Bloomberg revelan que en octubre, el BTC sólo tuvo un día de oscilaciones de precios de (+/-) 5 por ciento o más; en comparación con nueve días en enero y febrero, siete en marzo y cinco en julio.

El analista de Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone dice que los niveles de volatilidad marcadamente bajos son “una señal de que la especulación abandona el mercado y, finalmente, un proceso de fondo”.

En particular, la disminución de las oscilaciones de los precios ha coincidido con una devaluación significativa de la moneda en el curso de un mercado bajista incesante: Al cierre de la edición, el Bitcoin cotiza a 6 476 dólares, lo que supone un descenso de casi el 52 por ciento con respecto a los 13 350 dólares del 1 de enero.

Un artículo paralelo de Bloomberg ha contrastado hoy la estabilidad “apática” del Bitcoin en 2018 con las aparentemente “salvajes” fluctuaciones de precios de las acciones tecnológicas de los últimos tiempos, de las que se dice que son “el nuevo Bitcoin”. Según datos de Bloomberg, “el diferencial entre la volatilidad a 10 días del índice FANG+ de NYSE” y el Bitcoin ha alcanzado “un máximo histórico de 46 puntos porcentuales”.

Los analistas de Bloomberg dieron una perspectiva positiva sobre los patrones de negociación de Bitcoin, y McGlone señaló que “la alta volatilidad es un factor importante que reduce la mayoría de los casos de uso de la criptomoneda para cualquier otra cosa que no sea la especulación”.

Charlie Morris, jefe de activos múltiples de Atlantic House Fund Management, con sede en Londres, coincidió en que las estadísticas simplemente sugieren que “el mercado[cripto] está tranquilo y equilibrado”, agregó:

Dado que este mercado bajista ya tiene 10 meses y se está cansando, me inclinaría a ser optimista para el próximo gran movimiento.”

El CEO de la aplicación criptográfica Plutus, Danial Daychopan, observó a Bloomberg que “el costo de los comerciantes emocionales ha sido arrastrado por la reciente caída, y con ello gran parte de la volatilidad”. Los bajos volúmenes de negociación parecen coincidir con la observación de Daychopan de que la euforia comercial ha disminuido en los últimos meses.

A principios de este mes, Spencer Bogart, un experto de la empresa Blockchain Capital, una empresa de cripto y blockchain, coincidió en que el Bitcoin está mostrando fuertes signos de “tocar fondo”, anticipando una “futura hoguera de cripto cuando tengamos el próximo mercado alcista”.

Sobre la base de su análisis técnico de este mes de junio, el corredor de futuros Bill Baruch hizo un comentario similar, señalando que “un fondo es un proceso, no un precio”. Ahora que el precio y la volatilidad de[BTC] han vuelto a la tierra, este proceso de tocar fondo puede comenzar”.

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