MXN enfrentará riesgos a la baja significativos si Banxico mantiene las tasas sin cambios – TDS

Según los analistas de TDS, el peso mexicano será susceptible a nuevas caídas si el Banco de México no sube las tasas mañana. También señalan que si Banxico sube 25 puntos básicos con un mensaje optimista que señale una nueva subida, debería tener un impacto neutral sobre la moneda.

Citas clave:

“Ahora esperamos que Banxico deba regresar al camino de las subidas en las tasas de interés gracias a la confluencia de la volatilidad del MXN impulsado políticamente, en el contexto de expectativas de inflación elevadas (y deteriorándose). Estos factores están empezando a impactar sobre las cifras subyacentes, lo que sugiere un mayor riesgo de efectos secundarios. Vemos dos subidas de 25 puntos básicos en cada una en las reuniones de noviembre y diciembre”.

“Existe un riesgo al alza para nuestra visión sobre las tasas, dada la incertidumbre sustancial del régimen fiscal introducida por la administración de AMLO, que requerirá que la prima de riesgo adicional se ajuste a la moneda y a la curva de las tasas. Creemos que el MXN se depreciará aún más para empujar al USD/MXN hacia l nivel de 21.25 y correr el riesgo de romper al alza, en línea con un deterioro en los CDS del país y las percepciones de su perfil de riesgo fiscal”.

“Vemos un riesgo a la baja significativo para el peso mexicano si Banxico no cumple con nuestra expectativa (y la del mercado) de una subida. Las preocupaciones de riesgo político y la mayor prima de riesgo requerida por el mercado, particularmente los inversores extranjeros, deberán provenir de la depreciación del MXN, si no se realiza mediante las tasas. Esperamos que Banxico adopte un tono más optimista sobre los riesgos de inflación y la estabilidad del peso, lo que debería ayudar a calmar el mercado”.

“Vemos coherencia entre nuestra visión de las próximas dos reuniones y la prima de riesgo por otra subida de 25 puntos básicos a la curva TIIE en el nuevo año”.

 

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