Metales a la alza

Por supuesto que no todo lo que brilla es Oro, aunque el Oro ha cerrado el primer trimestre de 2017 con alza de 8.4%, su mejor porcentaje en un año. A la tendencia alcista de los metales más apreciados se suma la Plata la cual al contado subió un 0.7%, esto es 18.21 Dólares americanos la onza, el Platino que subió 0.6%, 948.60 Dólares, incrementando su estándar en 5%, y el Paladio que tuvo un avance considerable de 17.3% en el trimestre, pero que sólo en la última semana de marzo cerró con 0.2% para llegar a una cotización de 795.5 Dólares la onza.

Lo singular de esta alza no proviene de los inversionistas quienes puedan considerar a los metales preciosos como estrategia de inversión donde habría la posibilidad de canalizar capitales donde se obtiene, absoluta seguridad del valor invertido y rendimiento, moderado, pero capitalizable en un periodo largo de tiempo. No hay que dejarse engañar, los inversionistas no experimentan nuevas opciones de mercado. Esta alza tiene una lectura distinta; la incertidumbre por la estrategia de impuestos e inversiones por parte de la administración estadounidense, aunado a las condiciones derivadas del Brexit en Europa, en particular por las acciones políticas en el Reino Unido donde se busca consolidar la Libra Esterlina, ha hecho que este puñado de antecedentes impulsen la demanda de lingotes de Oro, y la previsión en otros metales, no sólo como medida de refugio, sino como medida de capitalización para las monedas de los países que han recurrido a este movimiento. Si bien el propio gobierno americano también ha utilizado este recurso, no lo ha hecho con un interés económico aunque sí político. El Dólar americano se ha apreciado, y goza de buena salud, adquirir Oro lo único que hace es fortalecer aún más al Dólar lo cual hace que los lingotes sean más caros para los tenedores de otras monedas, mientras que con tasas de interés más altas los rendimientos son mayores en los bonos y amortiguan la demanda del Oro que no rinde intereses; de ahí que otros metales preciosos hagan el juego del contrapeso de capitalización. El Oro se ha visto impulsado además por la toma de utilidades en las operaciones en Bolsa; y de momento los futuros del metal se han incrementado, pero en sí su valor real pende de dudas porque permanece la expectativa de las políticas económicas de los Estados Unidos y de la forma como se inicien las negociaciones en Europa respecto del Brexit, a lo que se suma la intención de Escocia de separarse del Reino Unido, y reintegrarse a la Unión Europea, situación que políticamente es aún lejana, y requiere de un proceso burocrático muy rebuscado. El inversionista en Fórex no puede dejarse deslumbrar por el mercado de metales cuando la posición del Dólar americano es excelente, y el papel de monedas como Renminbi viene con buena posición. Lo factible en el Mercado de Divisas está por llegar en los próximos anuncios que ha de realizar el Banco Central alemán respecto al Euro.

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