La Desaceleración de los Flujos de Capital

Los mercados financieros están aún en proceso de recuperar su fluidez. Esta semana cierra con la lenta reactivación en los flujos de capital en los mercados emergentes; luego de la mayor desaceleración provocada por el inesperado resultado en las elecciones en los Estados Unidos. Y sí, aún se sigue hablando de ello porque quien ocupe la titularidad de la Reserva Federal habrá de realizar los cambios necesarios para adaptar una nueva estrategia no Neoliberal. Luego del 11 de noviembre, cuando el conteo de las votaciones tiene un resultado inminente y ya establecido, el Dólar americano mantuvo su estabilidad, pero los mecanismos que operan las acciones de algunas empresas que cotizan en Bolsa, y la factible afectación a los precios de algunos productos del mercado internacional, redundó en merma para los mercados emergentes.

Los países que enfrentan presiones internas en su economía vieron afectado el flujo de capital; naciones como Corea del Sur, Indonesia, Tailandia, Filipinas, Sudáfrica, México, a la par que varios países Latinoamericanos, sufrieron reveses en el valor de su moneda respecto al tipo de cambio frente al Dólar. Desde el 8 de noviembre, al cierre de esta redacción, el peso mexicano, por ejemplo, se ha depreciado un 10%, empero, la incertidumbre en la política del  nuevo gobierno americano redunda en una presión constante para el Peso para lo que resta del año, y la primera quincena de enero próximo.

Hacia esta semana las Bolsas europeas y asiáticas han actuado con mesura; Francia ha sido quien ha tenido un mejor desempeño, seguido de la Gran Bretaña, y en menor medida el Dax Alemán. El índice Nikkei de Tokio apenas cedió un 0.03%, en tanto que Shanghái presentó un caída de 0.11%.

Los promedios industriales en los Estados Unidos presentaron mayor estabilidad debido al buen desempeño del sector tecnológico y de energía. El precio de Petróleo Crudo tuvo un ligero repunte luego de un factible acuerdo entre los países productores de petróleo; por ejemplo, los futuros del crudo Brent subieron 2.25 Dólares, lo que posiciona el valor de la Libra Esterlina.

Por otra parte, en esta semana, luego de tres sesiones de pérdidas consecutivas el Oro toma un respiro al tener una ganancia de 0.29% para ubicarse en 1 223.41 Dólares la onza; la incertidumbre para los metales ha sido debido a los efectos que las políticas económicas prometidas podrían tener -por el entonces candidato Republicano- respecto al aumento del gasto interno, lo que potenciaría la factibilidad de incrementar la inflación y frenar la demanda por el lingote el cual no devenga intereses económicos.

El desajuste en el mercado propició compras de oportunidad en el caso de los cereales; por ejemplo, los futuros de la Soya en la Bolsa de Chicago subieron esta semana 0.76%, mientras que los futuros del Maíz y del Trigo tuvieron un repunte de 1%, en tanto que en el mismo mercado de futuros, pero para el Petróleo, en Estados Unidos, se afianzaron en un 6%.

Todos estos movimientos en el Mercado Internacional son un aliciente para el propio Mercado de Divisas que factibiliza los promedios de inversión para el Trader que en puerta tenga la merca de Dólares americanos, o de Libras Esterlinas. La solidez en otras opciones financieras marcan la confianza en Fórex para todos aquellos quienes tengan la intención de capitalizarse de un modo rápido y eficiente. Para Fórex, hoy es el momento.

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