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Por supuesto que el Comercio de Divisas conlleva un alto grado de riesgo, sobre todo cuando existe de por medio la operación de un instrumento como el apalancamiento; y por supuesto, no todos los Traders pueden obtener el mismo tipo de ganancias, primero porque la ganancia depende del monto de la inversión, y segundo, la habilidad en la toma de decisiones sobre la elección de la moneda a adquirir -o vender-, depende de un conocimiento previo sobre la sustentabilidad financiera de esa moneda tanto en su país de origen como en su comportamiento en los mercados financieros. Ahora bien, no sólo es pertinente tener en cuenta la propia situación financiera del inversionista, sino también, el nivel de tolerancia a la frustración debido al resultado de la operación elegida… Pero para evitar en un alto porcentaje el grado de incertidumbre es importante estar informados sobre las decisiones que las autoridades en materia de economía disponen en cada país para determinar la estrategia de inversión; por supuesto, el Trader no ha de leer, o informarse, cada día sobre todas las monedas con las que opera el sistema de Fórex, pero es indispensable que al menos cada tercer día sean leídos los artículos sobre economía y finanzas como para mantener fresca la intención de movimiento. Por ejemplo, el resultado de la elección presidencial en Estados Unidos, al inicio de noviembre pasado, significó para el Yen japonés un alza del 4% frente al Dólar americano, esto es, 101.2 unidades; debido a que los Traders, ante el temor de algún golpe en el valor del Dólar decidieron buscar una moneda de refugio. El Yen, no es una moneda depreciada, sino por el contrario, goza de deflación en su país; y esa es una razón para mantener capitales seguros. Empero, para la autoridad económica japonesa, el alza de la divisa supone por tanto un obstáculo en los planes de su primer ministro y del Banco Central para estimular la economía interna.

A mediados de noviembre, las autoridades de Japón indicaron que el PIB reportó un crecimiento entre julio y septiembre de un 0.5%, respecto al trimestre anterior; este crecimiento es mayor a lo previsto por los analistas quienes estimaban un crecimiento de 0.2%. Este repunte ha sido causado por el aumento en las ventas al exterior (la demanda de productos japoneses en los mercados europeos, y algunos países asiáticos, derivado del abaratamiento en esa moneda respecto de los productos, tan sólo en el valor de cambio, ha significado una mayor adquisición para Japón) y no por la fortaleza del consumo interno. En estricto sentido, el consumidor japonés se ha restringido de adquirir productos, no por algún problema con el valor de la moneda, sino por una cuestión de inercia como la falta de interés por los propios productos. En términos anualizados, Japón es la tercera economía del planeta, y presenta un crecimiento del 2.2%, por la razón de la calidad de lo producido. El estado de deflación que vive Japón ha sido producido por la oferta de bienes y servicios la cual supera la demanda existente y el ajuste se realiza vía precios, los cuales son a la baja. La capacidad productiva golpea de manera negativa a los japoneses; la oferta en los mercados de bienes y servicios se ha excedido. La política económica del Primer Ministro se basa en el estímulo monetario, y un mayor gasto fiscal; sin embargo, la inversión empresarial se estancó, y el gasto del gobierno retrocedió un 0.7%. La situación que enfrenta Japón hace ver al Yen, para los inversionistas, como un refugio idóneo para los tiempos de incertidumbre financiera. Incluso, el evento del Brexit, ha incrementado el valor del Yen japonés; esto afecta a los japoneses, pero beneficia a los inversionistas del Mercado de Divisas. El Trader debe entender, que el Yen, para su beneficio, es un recurso viable y estable. La economía así es, pero hay que entenderla para poder invertir, y ganar.

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