El movimiento político de las inversiones

En poco más de una semana se ha hablado y escrito mucho sobre la salida británica de la Unión Europea; desde análisis serios y profundos, hasta expresiones insulsas porque quien emite esos farfullos desconoce sobre política y sobre economía.
En términos de negocio, es importante conocer, para no quebrar, quién es la competencia, y saber cuál es la necesidad del producto a mercar para su consumo, así como la ubicación estratégica para la distribución del mismo. Desconocer el mercado y realizar una inversión, equivale a perder el dinero. En finanzas, no conocer los mecanismos y estrategias de inversión lleva a arrojar el dinero a la basura. En inversión de divisas, si no se conocen los pasos y trayectoria de las políticas económicas de las monedas donde se ha de invertir, el riesgo de perderlo todo es más factible. Por eso, no basta con quedarse con la simple información, siempre superficial, del índice de cotizaciones. El inversionista en Forex no puede quedarse únicamente con el dato de que la mañana del 2 de julio, 1 Euro se compra en 1.11 Dólares, y 1 Libra Esterlina en 1.32 Dólares. El Peso mexicano se cotiza en 24.37 por Libra Esterlina; y 20.44 por Euro. El Yen japonés amanece a 102.51 por Dólar, y a 114.20 por Euro, a 136.12 por 1 Libra Esterlina. Estos datos no son una proyección de inversión, y no se puede prever la tendencia.
Es cierto que la Libra Esterlina, amanece fuerte en un mercado tambaleante. Se puede seguir invirtiendo en Libras Esterlinas sólo en función de saber que el Brexit ha fortalecido a la Socialdemocracia; el Brexit triunfó por la revuelta de la clase obrera británica; para muchos, fue un error gubernamental proponer a plebiscito la salida de la Gran Bretaña, porque consideran que en las decisiones económicas de una nación no debe intervenir el pueblo. Sin embargo, la autoridad británica dejó en manos de la gente, y de la Reina, la decisión de la salida, en una actitud absolutamente democrática. Mas, el resentimiento a las políticas financieristas de Europa y el acceso migratorio, impactaron la calidad de vida, además de las reformas globalizantes de la OCDE. Pero lo más importante y decisivo para optar por sustraerse de las políticas de la Unión Europea y las estrategias económicas alemanas, fue el valor de la Libra Esterlina. La salida británica de Europa, es un severo descalabro a la solvencia del Euro y deja al descubierto la vulnerabilidad del continente. La Gran Bretaña es la 2a potencia nuclear en Europa, apenas detrás de Francia. La Gran Bretaña deja desprotegido en materia de seguridad a los Europeos.
En términos de Geoeconomía, los yihadistas, quienes debido al acoso en Irak y Siria, ya emigran a Libia con la intención de llegar a Europa. Esto como resultado de las negociaciones entre Turquía y Rusia, Turquía e Israel, y Turquía con Egipto. El reciente atentado en el aeropuerto turco no es sino el resultado de una represalia del Estado Islámico contra Turquía por retirar su apoyo en la distribución de recursos económicos a la causa extremista.
Rusia y China se consolidan como potencias económicas apoyadas en su armamento nuclear; por eso la Gran Bretaña estrecha vínculos con China para fortalecer una moneda que gana terreno.
Quizá en el futuro próximo, el inversionista en Forex comience a participar en Yuanes; que por cierto, 8.8 Yuanes compran 1 Libra Esterlina, 7.4 compran 1 Euro, y 6.65 compran 1 Dólar. Hay que observar que el Yuan y el Rublo, se están posicionando.

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